In the words of the ancient Roman philosopher Seneca, “We suffer more often in imagination than in reality.” But for Nigeria before May 29, 2023, the suffering was not imaginary; it was as tangible as the bullet holes in market walls, as loud as the echo of explosions in rural hamlets and as devastating as the silence of villages emptied by terror.
The pre-Renewed Hope era was a time when the air was thick with anxiety and when daily life in many states was a calculated gamble between survival and tragedy.
From the mangroves of the Niger Delta to the dust-red plains of the north-west, from the insurgent-ravaged north-east to the flashpoints of the north-central, and from the separatist-shaken south-east to the urban centres battling organised crime, the Nigerian state was confronted by five intractable threats: Boko Haram/ISWAP terrorism, armed banditry, separatist agitations, oil theft and communal conflicts, especially the herder-farmer clashes.
It was a convergence of crises so severe that some questioned whether the fragile threads holding the country together could endure.
In Kaduna State alone, official data for 2021 told a grim story, 1,192 people killed, 3,348 kidnapped. In Benue and Plateau States, violent conflicts claimed over 5,000 lives in Benue and hundreds more in Plateau, leaving behind mass graves, refugee camps and smouldering ruins of once-thriving communities.
The south-east saw an unprecedented wave of separatist violence between October 2020 and June 2021, 164 police stations destroyed, 128 policemen killed, 144 wounded, 628 vehicles obliterated, three significant prison breaks, including the brazen Owerri attack that freed 1,841 inmates, and even an assault on the Immigration Service headquarters in Umuahia.
The Niger Delta was not spared. Economic sabotage and industrial-scale oil theft crippled production, dragging crude oil output to barely a million barrels per day, an economic haemorrhage threatening national revenue.
It was a storm without a break, and the public mood was best captured by the old African proverb: “When the drumbeat changes, the dancers must change their steps.” The steps had to change.
When the Renewed Hope Agenda was unfurled under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in May 2023, it was not a ceremonial ribbon-cutting but a battle order. The mission was clear: reclaim Nigeria from the grip of fear, restore faith in the republic and prove that the centre can indeed hold.
In its national security dimension, the Renewed Hope Agenda is under the direct coordination and watchful guidance of the National Security Adviser (NSA), Malam Nuhu Ribadu.
Appointed by President Tinubu on June 19, 2023, Ribadu brought into the office not just a wealth of experience as a renowned anti-corruption crusader and seasoned security strategist, but also a profound understanding of the delicate interplay between intelligence, enforcement, diplomacy and community engagement.
In the last two years, under his astute supervision, Nigeria has recorded remarkably outstanding feats in the security sphere. These achievements have reversed years of deterioration and rekindled public confidence in the state’s capacity to protect its citizens and safeguard territorial integrity.
From degrading the operational capabilities of insurgent groups to curbing the menace of banditry, kidnapping, oil theft and separatist violence, there have been bold interventions, precise intelligence coordination and seamless inter-agency synergy.
These gains are the cumulative result of coherent vision, meticulous planning and unflinching resolve to ensure that every Nigerian, regardless of location, can live without fear. The transformation is visible across all regions.
The once-volatile theatres of conflict are steadily yielding to peace, lawless enclaves are being dismantled, and the nation’s security architecture is being modernised to meet contemporary threats.
In the north-west, the fight against armed banditry reached a turning point. Over 11,250 hostages were freed in Zamfara and Kaduna, signalling the decline of mass abductions that had become the bandits’ signature weapon.
The operational core of the criminal networks was dismantled, 50 notorious warlords, known as “Kachalas,” along with over 70 deputies and hundreds of foot soldiers, were neutralised. Infamous names – Ali Kachalla, Boderi, Halilu Sububu, Dangote, Isuhu Yellow and Damuna – once whispered with dread, were erased from the battlefield.
Yet the offensive was not solely kinetic. The government deployed the “Kaduna Model,” a non-kinetic strategy that persuaded over 35 warlords to surrender.
A new “Operation Safe Corridor North-West” was rolled out to manage repentant bandits, offering a structured path away from violence to reintegration. This was not weakness; it was wisdom. As the Chinese philosopher Sun Tzu wrote, “To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill.”
In the north-east, counter-insurgency operations surged with unprecedented momentum. Over 13,543 terrorists and criminals were neutralised, 11,118 weapons recovered and destroyed, alongside 252,596 rounds of assorted ammunition.
Perhaps the most telling figure was the mass surrender of 124,408 Boko Haram and ISWAP fighters and their family members, a wave so large it rewrote the demographics of the conflict. Ongoing operations in the Timbuktu Triangle, Tumbu Islands and other hideouts kept the pressure constant, denying the insurgents rest and refuge.
However, the military victories were not fought in isolation from civilian life. Communities once depopulated by fear began resettling. Economic recovery plans were rolled out in reclaimed territories. Markets reopened. Schools resumed.
The sound of children’s laughter slowly replaced the rattle of gunfire. The truth of Aristotle’s words that “hope is the dream of a waking man” was being rediscovered.
In the south-east, where separatist violence had sought to choke economic and social life, security operations curtailed the impunity of IPOB and ESN elements.
While challenges remain, the frequency and scale of attacks have diminished and public confidence in state authority is increasing.
The Niger Delta saw targeted interventions against oil theft and economic sabotage, reversing the production slump and securing vital national revenue streams. It was a reminder that securing national economic assets is as critical as securing territorial borders in matters of statecraft.
Beyond the kinetic and territorial gains, a quieter but equally decisive battlefield emerged in the cyber domain.
The Binance cryptocurrency case triggered a crackdown on criminal activity exploiting digital platforms for terrorism, banditry and separatist financing. Suspicious accounts were frozen.
A new Critical National Information Infrastructure Protection Plan was approved and set in motion. A revitalised counter-intelligence framework began providing strategic support for threat mitigation.
The National Digital Forensic Laboratory became a linchpin for military and law enforcement investigations, aligning with the 21st-century reality that wars are fought with bullets and bytes.
Yet, even with these measurable gains, the horizon is not free of storm clouds. Global threats, cybercrime, terrorism and organised crime, are morphing in complexity.
Instability in the Sahel, Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, remains a contagion risk, feeding arms flows and extremist ideology into Nigeria’s northern corridors. The Lake Chad Basin continues to demand vigilance against ISWAP and Boko Haram remnants.
Climate change adds another volatile layer, fuelling herder-farmer conflicts with shifting grazing patterns and dwindling water resources.
The response has been multi-layered: enhanced intelligence gathering, better coordination across security agencies and targeted interventions in hotspots.
But security, as the saying goes, is everybody’s business. Military deployments alone cannot weld peace into permanence. Inclusive economic growth, infrastructural renewal and responsive governance are essential pillars of stability.
Roads and schools can be as effective against insurgency as rifles and drones, for they root people in hope rather than despair.
This is why, under President Tinubu’s direction, even the nation’s ecological guardians, the National Park Services, have been reinvigorated through the Forest Guard Initiative, a move aimed at conservation and denying criminals the sanctuary of Nigeria’s wilderness. It is a holistic view of national security that emphasises the fact that a protected environment is also a protected people.
The narrative of 2023–2025 is the story of a state refusing to be defined by its vulnerabilities. It reminds us of Thomas Hobbes’s line that life without order is “nasty, brutish and short” and of the determination of the Nigerian people to prove that life here can be secure, dignified and long.
The results are visible. Kidnap gangs, once strutting across state lines, now traverse a shrinking map of influence. Insurgents who vowed to fight for decades now surrender in their tens of thousands.
Oil thieves who bled the economy are facing shrinking channels for their illicit trade. Communities where the evening call to prayer once signalled the start of curfews now hear it as a call to normal life.
But this is not the end. Security gains, like fragile seedlings, require constant tending. If neglected, they wither; if protected, they grow into forests that shelter generations. The call now is for sustained commitment, a whole-of-government and whole-of-society pact to guard what has been regained.
Local governments must secure their wards; states must invest in youth engagement and rural development; the federal government must continue providing the strategic leadership that has delivered these results.
Every citizen has a role: the farmer who reports strange movements, the trader who refuses to launder criminal funds, the community leader who mediates disputes before they escalate, the journalist who reports truth without inflaming tensions and the civil servant who ensures security funds are spent where intended. Together, they form an invisible shield stronger than any wall.
As the administration’s security team often affirms, the progress of the past two years is a product of collective effort, military, police, intelligence agencies and civil authorities, all working under the President’s direction. It is a partnership that must not fray. As the African sage warns, “When the drumbeat stops, the dance ends.” The drumbeat of security reforms, operational intensity and public cooperation must not stop.
The march from shadows to security is not just a military campaign but a national renaissance. And like all renaissances, it demands patience, resilience and belief.
The gains may not erase every scar of the past, but they light a path to a future where Nigerian children grow up knowing gunfire only from history lessons, not from the night sky outside their windows.
Let the story of 2023 to 2025 be remembered not simply as a chapter of conflict and resolution, but as the proof that when leadership, courage and unity converge, even a nation once on the brink can stand tall again.
As we look forward, the words of Marcus Aurelius resonate: “What stands in the way becomes the way.” The obstacles of yesterday have become the proving ground of today, shaping a Nigeria that is more prepared, vigilant and determined to keep its centre whole. The work continues, not out of fear of relapse, but out of the conviction that a secure Nigeria is not just possible, it is inevitable when its people decide that peace is the only acceptable legacy.
